ABOUT THE WHY PROJECT
Energy System Models (ESMs) are tools that help energy experts and policy makers to rationally describe energy systems and systematically evaluate the impacts of long-term energy scenarios. Current ESMs lack accuracy required for proper capture of the use of energy in households. WHY develops a new Causal Model combined with an innovative profiling approach to analyse human decision making in energy consumption and human reactions to energy policy changes. WHY will therefore create innovative methodologies for short and long term load forecasting. The WHY toolkit will be used to assess several scenarios simulating different policy measures. All results will be open-sourced to maxim- ize uptake, and be widely disseminated to diverse target audiences.
In order to mitigate climate change effects, urgent action is required in all sectors of the economy to significantly reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emission. Energy System Models (ESM) are tools that help energy analysts, planners and policy makers to rationally de- scribe energy systems and systematically evaluate the impacts of long-term scenarios. On the supply side, ESMs have provided useful results, but however, on the demand side, they lack the degree of accuracy required for proper characterization of, among others, the use of energy in households. One of the intrinsic difficulties is that energy demand in the residential sector is influenced by a myriad of factors (like the high diversity of dwellings, socio-economic conditions of the social/family units, and behavioral-related con- sumption patterns) that cannot easily be accounted for in traditional ESMs.
To overcome this challenge, the novel Causal Modeling will be used to quantitatively ana- lyse human decision making in energy consumption and their reactions to interventions (e.g. policy changes). This will be combined with an innovative FFORMA approach which allows multiple different load profiles to be categorised by a set of vectors describing it. WHY will therefore create innovative methodologies for short and long term load forecast- ing. The WHY modeling will allow to directly assess the impact of a multitude of policies on the energy system as well as performing both ex-ante and ex-post assessment over policy measures. WHY will therefore contribute to a holistic understanding of household energy consumption and improved demand modelling.
The WHY toolkit will be used to assess several scenarios simulating different policy measures. Integration with widely-used ESMs (PRIMES, TIMES) will be demonstrated and the results analyzed. All results will be open-sourced to maximize uptake, and be widely disseminated to diverse target audiences (i.e. DSOs, energy companies, policy makers, researchers).
UNIVERSIDAD DE LA IGLESIA DE DEUSTO ENTIDAD RELIGIOSA, Spain
4WARD ENERGY RESEARCH GMBH, Austria
E3-MODELLING AE, Greece
NEDERLANDSE ORGANISATIE VOOR TOEGEPAST NATUURWETENSCHAP- PELIJK ONDERZOEK TNO, The Netherlands
GOIENER S.COOP, Spain
RENEWABLES GRID INITIATIVE EV, Germany CLIMATE ALLIANCE, Germany
Project start: 01/09/2020 | Duration 3 years | Grant Agreement number: 891943 — WHY — H2020- LC-SC3-2018-2019-2020 / H2020-LC-SC3-EE-2019